Poolside: Laguna M.1
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$-7,219.00
Total P&L
25.0%
Win Rate
4
Closed Trades
4.0 s
Avg Response
42.0%
Avg Confidence
0
Open Positions
Equity Curve
Recent Trades Last 50
| Status | Dir | Strike | Exp | Entry | Exit | Stock In | Stock Out | Opt In | Opt Out | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | PUT | $390 | Jul 27 (5d) | Jul 22 2:37PM | Jul 23 2:09PM | $389.95 | $387.47 | $6.85 | $7.25 | +$840.00 |
| Closed | PUT | $398 | Jul 20 (3d) | Jul 17 1:37PM | Jul 20 2:18PM | $397.29 | $394.77 | $5.10 | $3.75 | $-2,700.00 |
| Closed | CALL | $385 | Jun 22 (5d) | Jun 17 3:42PM | Jun 18 1:32PM | $385.97 | $379.17 | $5.10 | $1.76 | $-5,344.00 |
| Closed | PUT | $418 | May 22 (4d) | May 18 4:02PM | May 19 2:52PM | $418.49 | $422.80 | $6.15 | $6.00 | $-15.00 |
Decision Log Last 50
| Time | Ticker | Price | Action | Confidence | Response | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 1:54 PM | MSFT | $382.12 | PUT | 68% | 47.1s | Squeeze released with very high volume (2.37x) and price below VWAP ($382.12 vs $382.37), combined with bearish EMA cross and negative MACD histogram confirming downside momentum. LinReg slope (-0.0632) also supports bearish bias despite conflicting HMA signal. |
| Jul 24, 1:49 PM | MSFT | $381.53 | HOLD | 35% | 52.9s | Squeeze released with high volume (2.37x) but momentum indicators conflict - bearish EMA cross/LinReg/MACD vs bullish HMA/price above EMAs. Win rate (35%) below 40% favors waiting for clearer textbook-quality setup despite strong volume signal. |
| Jul 24, 1:45 PM | MSFT | $382.94 | HOLD | 35% | 78.9s | Mixed signals: squeeze released with high volume (2.37x) but momentum indicators conflict - bearish EMA cross/LinReg/MACD vs bullish VWAP/HMA. Call option spread (19.4%) exceeds 15% threshold, and win rate (35%) below 40% favors waiting for clearer textbook-quality setup. |
| Jul 23, 2:09 PM | MSFT | $387.47 | SELL | 72% | 73.3s | MACD histogram is positive (0.1131) indicating bullish momentum, which works against the PUT position direction. While price is below strike and VWAP, the momentum shift suggests the downtrend may be losing steam. |
| Jul 22, 2:37 PM | MSFT | $389.95 | PUT | 75% | 54.4s | Bollinger squeeze released with high volume surge (1.69x) and strong bearish momentum as price breaks below session low ($396.32) to $389.95, confirmed by bearish MACD histogram (-0.13) and price below all key moving averages including VWAP ($398.97). |
| Jul 22, 2:30 PM | MSFT | $389.85 | HOLD | 45% | 85.8s | Squeeze released with high volume (1.69x) but BB %B at -3.72 shows severely oversold condition while all trend indicators (EMA, VWAP, HMA) are bearish. Range position at -125.6% makes put entries risky, and ATR at $0.65 is below preferred threshold of $1.0, suggesting limited range for the move. |
| Jul 22, 2:17 PM | MSFT | $391.67 | HOLD | 45% | 87.4s | Squeeze released with high volume (1.69x) but BB %B at -2.85 shows severely oversold condition while all trend indicators (EMA, VWAP, HMA) are bearish. Range position at -90.4% makes put entries risky, and conflicting signals require clearer directional confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 22, 2:10 PM | MSFT | $392.01 | HOLD | 45% | 50.5s | Squeeze released with high volume (1.69x) and bearish trend alignment, but BB %B at -2.686 indicates severely oversold condition and range position at -83.8% (near session low) makes put entries risky. Conflicting signals suggest waiting for clearer directional confirmation. |
| Jul 21, 2:05 PM | MSFT | $399.40 | HOLD | 65% | 62.5s | Squeeze is ON with BB %B at -0.287 (below lower band) indicating oversold compression, but pre-market gap of -2.7% requires waiting for first 15 min settlement. Mixed signals: price above VWAP (bullish) but below EMAs (bearish), and win rate at 30.6% favors caution until clearer squeeze release signal emerges. |
| Jul 20, 2:18 PM | MSFT | $394.77 | SELL | 85% | 28.5s | Position is down 26.5% exceeding the 25% loss threshold for exit signal, and with DTE:0 expiration today, there's no time value recovery potential. Mixed technicals with price above VWAP (bullish for underlying, bearish for put) conflict with EMA/MACD bearish signals, but the significant loss warrants closing. |
| Jul 20, 2:16 PM | MSFT | $393.67 | HOLD | 80% | 35.3s | Position is ITM with ~$3.83 intrinsic value (strike $397.50 vs price $393.67), all technicals strongly bearish (price below VWAP/EMAs, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076), and elevated volume 3.17x supports continuation. Only 1.4% loss with DTE:0 but ITM status provides intrinsic protection; not in last 10 minutes of session. |
| Jul 20, 2:14 PM | MSFT | $392.44 | HOLD | 75% | 35.4s | Position is ITM with $5.06 intrinsic value protecting against theta decay, technicals remain bearish (price below VWAP/EMAs, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076), and volume is elevated at 3.17x supporting continuation of downside momentum. No exit signals triggered with P&L at 13.7% (below 40% profit threshold). |
| Jul 20, 2:13 PM | MSFT | $391.83 | HOLD | 75% | 19.5s | Position at 23.1% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with $5.67 intrinsic value provides protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation of downside momentum. |
| Jul 20, 2:12 PM | MSFT | $391.34 | HOLD | 85% | 29.2s | Position at 25.1% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation. |
| Jul 20, 2:10 PM | MSFT | $391.39 | HOLD | 85% | 26.2s | Position at 22.5% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation. |
| Jul 20, 2:09 PM | MSFT | $391.27 | HOLD | 85% | 21.0s | Position at 23.5% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation. |
| Jul 20, 2:07 PM | MSFT | $391.50 | HOLD | 85% | 23.5s | Position at 30% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation. |
| Jul 20, 2:05 PM | MSFT | $390.38 | HOLD | 85% | 21.8s | Position at 25.5% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish - price below VWAP/EMA9/EMA21, RSI 38.6 in bearish zone, MACD hist -0.1076. No exit signals triggered; ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and elevated volume (3.17x) supports continuation. |
| Jul 20, 2:01 PM | MSFT | $390.51 | HOLD | 85% | 18.8s | Position at 32.4% gain (below 40% profit threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076). No exit signals triggered - ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and volume remains elevated at 3.17x supporting continuation. |
| Jul 20, 1:55 PM | MSFT | $390.95 | HOLD | 85% | 18.1s | Position at 39.2% gain (below 40% threshold) with all technicals strongly bearish (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076). No exit signals triggered - ITM status with DTE:0 provides intrinsic value protection against theta decay, and volume remains elevated at 3.17x supporting continuation. |
| Jul 20, 1:51 PM | MSFT | $391.61 | HOLD | 82% | 40.2s | Position is ITM with 29.4% gain, well below 40% profit threshold. Technicals strongly support bearish direction (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076). No exit signals triggered - MACD and VWAP both favor the put position. DTE:0 theta risk mitigated by strong ITM intrinsic value. |
| Jul 20, 1:50 PM | MSFT | $391.01 | HOLD | 75% | 17.5s | Position is ITM with 29.4% gain, technicals remain bearish (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076), and no exit signals triggered. DTE:0 theta risk is mitigated by strong ITM status, and we're not in final 10 minutes with elevated volume at 3.17x. |
| Jul 20, 1:47 PM | MSFT | $391.93 | HOLD | 75% | 22.1s | Position is ITM with price $391.93 vs $397.50 strike, technicals strongly bearish (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076), and no exit signals triggered. DTE:0 theta risk mitigated by strong ITM status, and we're not in final 10 minutes with volume still elevated at 3.17x. |
| Jul 20, 1:46 PM | MSFT | $391.92 | HOLD | 78% | 20.6s | Position is ITM with price $391.92 vs $397.50 strike, technicals strongly bearish (price below EMA9/21/VWAP, RSI 38.6, MACD hist -0.1076), and no exit signals triggered. DTE:0 theta risk mitigated by strong ITM status, and we're not in final 10 minutes with volume still elevated at 3.17x. |
| Jul 20, 1:44 PM | MSFT | $391.58 | HOLD | 72% | 20.5s | Position is profitable (16.3%) with technicals still supporting bearish bias - price below EMA9/21/VWAP at $391.58 vs $397.50 strike, RSI at 38.6 in bearish zone, and MACD histogram negative. DTE:0 requires monitoring but not an exit signal yet as we're not in final 10 minutes and no other exit criteria triggered. |
| Jul 20, 1:36 PM | MSFT | $389.80 | HOLD | 65% | 28.8s | Position is up 27.5% with strong bearish alignment - price below EMA9/21/VWAP at $389.80 vs $397.50 strike, RSI at 38.6 in bearish zone, and MACD histogram negative. No exit signals triggered (not 25% loss, not 40% gain, not last 10 min). However, DTE:0 requires monitoring for theta decay acceleration. |
| Jul 17, 1:37 PM | MSFT | $397.29 | PUT | 78% | 27.6s | Bollinger squeeze released with 4.27x volume surge, price below all key moving averages (EMA9/21/VWAP/HMA), BB %B at -0.265 (below lower band), and LinReg slope negative confirming bearish momentum. Put option has acceptable 11.8% spread and 1006 OI. |
| Jul 17, 1:32 PM | MSFT | $394.16 | HOLD | 0% | 20.8s | Cannot enter trades in first 5 minutes after market open (6:30-6:35 AM PT). Current time 6:32 AM is within restricted entry window despite squeeze release and high volume signals. |
| Jul 16, 2:22 PM | MSFT | $394.86 | HOLD | 35% | 13.6s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish with negative LinReg slope (-0.0855), but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 2:16 PM | MSFT | $394.42 | HOLD | 35% | 14.5s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish with negative LinReg slope (-0.0855), but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 2:12 PM | MSFT | $393.16 | HOLD | 35% | 24.2s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish with negative LinReg slope (-0.0855), but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 2:08 PM | MSFT | $393.41 | HOLD | 35% | 19.6s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish with negative LinReg slope (-0.0855), but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 2:06 PM | MSFT | $393.71 | HOLD | 35% | 16.1s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish with negative LinReg slope (-0.0855), but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 1:53 PM | MSFT | $394.43 | HOLD | 35% | 36.9s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059, BB %B -0.081) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish, but compression phase suggests waiting for clearer breakout. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold indicates limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 1:52 PM | MSFT | $394.42 | HOLD | 40% | 12.7s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Additionally, it's within first 5 minutes after open (6:52 AM) which violates timing rules. Mixed signals: price below EMAs/VWAP/HMA bearish, but BB %B at -0.085 shows oversold condition. |
| Jul 16, 1:43 PM | MSFT | $395.92 | HOLD | 45% | 31.1s | Squeeze remains ON (BB width 0.0059) - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Mixed signals: price above EMAs/VWAP/HMA bullish, but MACD histogram (-0.0722) and LinReg slope (-0.0855) bearish. ATR 0.82 below preferred 1.0 threshold suggests limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 1:36 PM | MSFT | $396.38 | HOLD | 25% | 19.1s | Squeeze remains ON with BB width at 0.0059 - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Additionally, it's within first 5 minutes after open (6:36 AM) which violates timing rules. ATR at 0.82 suggests limited range potential. |
| Jul 16, 1:35 PM | MSFT | $396.63 | HOLD | 35% | 17.7s | Squeeze is ON with BB width at 0.0059 - must wait for release before entering directional trades. Additionally, it's within first 5 minutes after open (6:34 AM) and option spreads are wide (18.5% call, 33.7% put) indicating poor liquidity. |
| Jul 15, 2:51 PM | MSFT | $395.36 | HOLD | 45% | 36.5s | Bollinger squeeze release with very high volume (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but range position at 175.2% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky while put OI (33) fails 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:29 PM | MSFT | $395.36 | HOLD | 45% | 61.3s | Bollinger squeeze release with strong volume surge (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but conflicting directional signals (HMA/VWAP bullish vs EMA cross/RSI/LinReg bearish) and poor performance history (28% WR) require clearer confirmation. Range position at 175.2% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky while put OI (33) fails minimum requirement. |
| Jul 15, 2:27 PM | MSFT | $395.76 | HOLD | 45% | 48.2s | Bollinger squeeze release with strong volume surge (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but conflicting directional signals (HMA/VWAP bullish vs EMA cross/RSI/LinReg bearish) and poor performance history (28% WR) require clearer confirmation. Put OI (33) fails 100 minimum while range position (179.4%) makes calls risky. |
| Jul 15, 2:25 PM | MSFT | $397.15 | HOLD | 45% | 40.6s | Bollinger squeeze release with very high volume (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but range position at 193.9% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky. Put OI (109) barely meets minimum while HMA(9) bullish conflicts with put direction. Conflicting signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:21 PM | MSFT | $396.86 | HOLD | 45% | 38.4s | Bollinger squeeze release with very high volume (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but range position at 190.9% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky while put OI (109) barely meets minimum. Conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative (-0.0823) and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:20 PM | MSFT | $394.95 | HOLD | 45% | 33.3s | Bollinger squeeze release with strong volume surge (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but range position at 170.9% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky. Put OI (33) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:17 PM | MSFT | $394.87 | HOLD | 45% | 52.9s | Strong VWAP crossover with volume surge (4.27x) signals bullish breakout, but range position at 170% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky. Put OI (33) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:13 PM | MSFT | $393.79 | HOLD | 45% | 45.2s | Bollinger squeeze release with very high volume (4.27x) provides breakout potential, but range position at 158.7% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky while put OI (24) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative (-0.0823) and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:10 PM | MSFT | $393.30 | HOLD | 45% | 36.2s | Squeeze release with high volume (4.27x) provides bullish breakout potential, but range position at 153.6% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky while put OI (24) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus RSI in bearish zone (36.7) adds uncertainty. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:06 PM | MSFT | $392.87 | HOLD | 45% | 42.7s | Squeeze release with high volume (4.27x) provides bullish breakout potential, but range position at 149.1% exceeds 85% threshold making calls extremely risky. Put OI (24) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting signals: LinReg slope negative (-0.0823) favors puts while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls, plus EMA cross bearish and RSI in bearish zone (36.7). Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 2:03 PM | MSFT | $390.89 | HOLD | 45% | 45.5s | Strongest signal is VWAP crossover with high volume (4.27x), but range position at 128.3% exceeds 85% threshold making calls risky. Put OI (66) fails the 100 minimum requirement. Conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative and EMA cross bearish favor puts, while HMA(9) and VWAP favor calls. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation before entering. |
| Jul 15, 1:54 PM | MSFT | $390.18 | HOLD | 45% | 47.5s | Squeeze release with high volume (4.27x) provides bullish breakout potential, but conflicting directional signals: LinReg slope negative (-0.0823) favors puts while HMA(9) bullish favors calls, plus EMA cross bearish and RSI in bearish zone (36.7) create uncertainty. Range position at 120.8% exceeds 85% threshold making calls risky. Poor performance history (28% WR) requires clearer confirmation. |