Arcee AI: Trinity Large Thinking

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$-840.00

Total P&L

0.0%

Win Rate

Closed Trades

0.1 s

Avg Response

31.6%

Avg Confidence

Open Positions

Equity Curve

Recent Trades Last 50

Status	Dir	Strike	Exp	Entry	Exit	Stock In	Stock Out	Opt In	Opt Out	P&L
Closed	PUT	$415	May 26 (6d)	May 20 2:25PM	May 21 2:16PM	$414.63	$419.18	$6.20	$5.50	$-840.00

Decision Log Last 50

Time	Ticker	Price	Action	Confidence	Response	Reasoning
May 22, 8:02 PM	MSFT	$418.82	HOLD	0%	3.1s	Market closes in 2 minutes at 1:00 PM PT, making any new entry impractical. The Bollinger squeeze remains ON requiring wait for release, and ATR is below 1.0 indicating limited range potential. Additionally, performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction which is not met despite bearish momentum signals.
May 22, 7:14 PM	MSFT	$418.87	HOLD	0%	3.9s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, market closes in 46 minutes making any new entry impractical, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and bearish momentum signals.
May 22, 6:54 PM	MSFT	$418.82	HOLD	0%	3.1s	Market closes in 6 minutes, making any new entry impractical; the Bollinger squeeze remains ON requiring wait for release; bearish momentum signals (price below VWAP/EMAs, negative MACD histogram) are present but insufficient for high-conviction trade given the 7-trade losing streak and poor 11.1% win rate; ATR is below 1.0 indicating limited range potential.
May 22, 6:43 PM	MSFT	$419.63	HOLD	0%	3.5s	—
May 22, 6:00 PM	MSFT	$417.80	HOLD	0%	11.4s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and bearish momentum signals.
May 22, 5:14 PM	MSFT	$418.69	HOLD	20%	5.1s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and mixed signals (price below EMAs/VWAP with bearish MACD histogram).
May 22, 4:44 PM	MSFT	$419.23	HOLD	15%	3.6s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and mixed signals (price above EMAs/VWAP but MACD histogram bearish).
May 22, 4:02 PM	MSFT	$419.34	HOLD	15%	3.1s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and price above EMAs/VWAP.
May 22, 3:09 PM	MSFT	$418.38	HOLD	25%	4.4s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and bearish price position below EMAs/VWAP.
May 22, 2:39 PM	MSFT	$417.17	HOLD	30%	4.8s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and bearish price position below EMAs/VWAP.
May 22, 2:24 PM	MSFT	$418.39	HOLD	40%	8.0s	Squeeze is ON (BB inside KC) requiring wait for release before directional entry, ATR(14) is $0.90 (below 1.0) indicating limited range potential, and performance history shows a 7-trade losing streak requiring higher conviction for trades, which is not met despite high volume (1.68x) and bearish price position below EMAs/VWAP.
May 21, 2:16 PM	MSFT	$419.18	SELL	75%	4.4s	Aggressive theta decay with only 5 DTE and price above VWAP ($417.16) creates strong exit signal for losing put position, compounded by poor performance history (14.3% win rate) requiring higher conviction for holds.
May 20, 2:25 PM	MSFT	$414.63	PUT	85%	8.8s	Strong bearish setup with squeeze release confirmed by 3.71x volume surge, price below key EMAs/WAP, and RSI at 38.8. All entry filters pass including option liquidity (bid-ask <15%, OI >100), and Greeks are favorable (delta 0.529, gamma 0.028, IV 26.6%). Time is within optimal window (7:25 AM PT) and performance-aware rules allow trade despite 2L streak given textbook signal quality.
May 20, 1:34 PM	MSFT	$414.49	HOLD	45%	3.2s	Squeeze released with high volume surge (3.71x) and price below key EMAs/WAP indicates bearish momentum, but option liquidity fails entry filters: bid-ask spreads exceed 15% (19.2%/21.3%) and open interest is low (<400), making entries risky despite strong technical signals.
May 19, 2:06 PM	MSFT	$429.09	SELL	70%	13.2s	Price is above VWAP ($429.09 > $421.11) which is bearish for a put position, and theta decay is aggressive (\|theta\| > 15% of option price) with only 3 DTE remaining, creating a strong exit signal despite the small profit.
May 18, 1:39 PM	MSFT	$418.67	PUT	85%	5.2s	Bearish momentum with RSI at 34.5, price below key EMAs, high volume surge (5.84x), and squeeze release, with ATM put offering favorable delta and liquidity.